Have
you ever thought what artists do? Well, they make models of reality that are more
beautiful than reality itself in order to make our existence endurable. However,
as Michelangelo once said, "A man paints with his brains and not with his
hands." Moreover, a modeler of reality is an artist with constraints. A Japanese
proverb says, "Thinking without action is a daydream. Action without thinking
is a nightmare." Therefore, there are two kinds of failures: Those who thought
and never did, and those who did and never thought. Realization of the fact that
"Time is Money" in business activities can be very vital, applying to
a wide range of managerial decisions successfully where time and money are directly
related.
In
making strategic decisions under uncertainty, we resort to making forecasts (we
all make forecasts at one time or the other). We may not think that we are forecasting,
but our choices will be directed by our anticipation of results, our actions or
inactions. Someone, somewhere very rightly pointed out, indecision and delay are
the "parents of failure". Managers and administrators, thus, need to
do the job of anticipating and, hence, a better job of managing uncertainty is
called for by using effective forecasting techniques. This precisely is the need
for forecasting. When one is pondering over forecasting and the need for forecasting,
its emphasis is felt most when companies are seriously contemplating New Product
Development (NPD). There are innumerable nuances of the aspects of forecasting
used by organizations. One such specific nuance is what this article aims to address. |
